Macroeconomic framework

We expect the development in the overall economy to continue to be held back by the consequences of the economic and financial crisis in the next two years as well. In their autumn survey published on 15 October 2009, German economic research institutes forecast a 5 % year-on-year decline in German gross domestic product in 2009 as a whole. Following this drastic downturn, 2010 is expected to bring marginal economic growth of 1.2 % compared with the low level in 2009. It is difficult to make any forecasts concerning developments further down the line. Notwithstanding the emerging revival in the economy, we see these developments as still being subject to numerous uncertainties. The high volume of public sector debt incurred to master the economic crisis, falling trade tax receipts due to economic developments and higher unemployment totals will severely burden state budgets in 2009 and 2010.